Changes in Baltic Sea surface temperature extremes

Author

Byoung Woong An ; Haapala, Jari

Author_Institution

Finnish Meteorol. Inst., Helsinki, Finland

fYear

2014

fDate

27-29 May 2014

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

5

Abstract

The probability of extreme sea surface temperature (SST) occurring seems more apparent for future in the Baltic Sea therefore its prediction and inferences are essential. This study analyzed the mean change of the SST in the Baltic Sea and calculated return periods using extreme value distributions of the 21st century. To illustrate the application of extreme value theory, annual SST maxima from the Baltic Sea regional climate model based on NEMO-LIM3 [1] were analyzed. The changes were estimated from the control simulation of the 20th century (1971-2000) and were assessed for the following projected periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099 forced by the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. Under that scenario, results indicate that the warm extremes (e.g. 30-year return values) will occur more frequently than those of the current condition and also show different spatial patterns. In addition, the strength of the spatial variability in the Baltic Sea will be reduced gradually towards the end of the 21st century.

Keywords

climatology; ocean temperature; oceanographic regions; probability; AD 1971 to 2000; AD 2011 to 2040; AD 2041 to 2070; AD 2071 to 2099; Baltic Sea regional climate model; Baltic Sea surface temperature extreme changes; IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario; NEMO-LIM3; annual SST maxima; extreme SST probability; extreme value distributions; extreme value theory; spatial pattern; spatial variability; warm extremes; Analytical models; Atmospheric modeling; Biological system modeling; Data models; Meteorology; Ocean temperature; Sea surface;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Baltic International Symposium (BALTIC), 2014 IEEE/OES

Conference_Location

Tallinn

Print_ISBN

978-1-4799-5707-1

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/BALTIC.2014.6887871

Filename

6887871