The effect of decision support systems on managerial performance and decision confidence

The authors explore the relationship among confidence, decision performance, and computer-based decision support. They report results of a computer-driven experiment in which subjects manage a company´s liquid assets for 24 periods. Graphically displayed asset-performance data are available to both groups; half of the subjects are provided with a discretionary `what-if´ tool. Four confidence measures are collected at eight equally spaced points. Differences in performance and confidence between the `what-if´ and control groups generally were not statistically significant. The best and worst performing quartiles of the `what-if´ group are significantly more confident than are corresponding subjects in the control groups. For both groups, Likert-scale measures of confidence were more inflated than `frequentist´-type measures