Avian Influenza Datamining Using Environment, Epidemiology, and Etiology Surveillance and Analysis Toolkit (E3SAT)

Environment, Epidemiology, and Etiology Surveillance and Analysis Toolkit (E3SAT) is an Office of Secretary of Defense (OSD) funded effort to develop surveillance and data analysis capability for environmental issues, epidemics, and occupational safety data analysis. This paper presents the application of E3SAT technology for avian influenza data mining and surveillance. The main goal of our data mining efforts was to detect the factors contributing to the outbreak of avian influenza and predict countries and regions at risk for avian influenza. We assembled avian influenza incident data spanning over five years from the Avian Influenza Mapping System (AIMS) and supplemented the data with open source environmental, demographic, economic, infrastructure, as well as bird migration data from NOAA, World Bank and Nature. We developed and validated a predictive analytics model that provides a global geo-temporal index of the threat of H5N1 outbreak in real-time. This paper presents the results of our efforts.