Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects by the use of Monte Carlo Simulation: The CBA-DK Model

This paper presents the Danish CBA-DK software model for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation following the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) methodology in a Danish manual from the Ministry of Transport and on a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis (RA) is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). After a description of the deterministic and stochastic calculations emphasis is paid to the RA part of CBA-DK with considerations about which probability distributions to make use of. Furthermore, a comprehensive assessment of the set of distributions are made. Finally conclusions and a perspective are presented