Indirect Cycle-Time Quantile Estimation for Non-Fifo Dispatching Policies

Previous work has shown that the Cornish-Fisher expansion (CFE) can be used successfully in conjunction with discrete event simulation models of manufacturing systems to estimate cycle-time quantiles. However, the accuracy of the approach degrades when non-FIFO dispatching rules are employed for at least one workstation. This paper suggests a modification to the CFE-only approach which utilizes a power data transformation in conjunction with the CFE. An overview of the suggested approach is given, and results of the implemented approach are presented for a model of a non-volatile memory factory. Cycle-time quantiles for this system are estimated using the CFE with and without the data transformation, and results show a significant accuracy improvement in cycle-time quantile estimation when the transformation is used. Additionally, the technique is shown to be easy to implement, to require very low data storage, and to allow easy estimation of the entire cycle-time cumulative distribution function