A multiple hypothesis prediction method for improved aircraft state awareness

• Flight crew´s decision making has historically been identified as one of the leading contributing and causal factors in aircraft accidents. • Flight crews may be even further removed from traditional flight duties and be required to focus even more on system management and monitoring (i.e., pilot-on-the-loop) in NextGen than system operating (i.e., pilot-in-the-loop) in current operations. • Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) reports have shown that “ineffective alerting” and “invalid source data” have been frequent contributors to recent aviation accidents. • Without effective information management methods and architectures as well as alerting systems, the level of flight crew unawareness of the aircraft state may become an even more serious safety risk and result in fatal accidents in hazardous situations.