Estimating performance of a business process model

In this paper we suggest a model for estimating performance of human organizations and business processes. This model is based on subjective assessment of the capabilities of the available human resources, the importance of these capabilities, and the influence of the peripheral factors on the resources. The model can be used to compare different resource allocation schemes in order to choose the most beneficial one. We suggest an extension to Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN) by including performance measure of performers and the probability by which an outgoing Sequence Flow from a Gateway is chosen. We also propose an analytical method for estimating the overall performance of BPMN in simple cases and a simulation method, which can be used for more complicated scenarios. To illustrate how these methods work, we apply them to part of a military Operational Planning Process and discuss the results.