Study of the energetic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit with a time-varying NARMAX method

Author

Liu Shuai ; Li Zhi ; Lin Ruilin

Author_Institution

Dept. of Space Command, Equip. Acad., Beijing, China

fYear

2015

fDate

21-23 April 2015

Firstpage

399

Lastpage

403

Abstract

The Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs(NARMAX) approach is briefly introduced. Since its advantage on nonlinear system modeling, this paper focuses on its application for describing the dynamic energetic electron flux(>2MeV)variations at the geostationary orbit. A basic one-step-ahead nonlinear model and a Kalman Filter modified one are built to map the relationship between the electron fluxes and the solar wind and the geomagnetic index. The prediction efficiency reaches up to 79.7%. The validation procedure further confirms that this method is effective and could be helpful in studying the radiation belt.

Keywords

atmospheric techniques; radiation belts; Kalman Filter; Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs; basic one-step-ahead nonlinear model; dynamic energetic electron flux variations; geomagnetic index; geostationary orbit; prediction efficiency; radiation belt; solar wind; system modeling; time-varying NARMAX method; Autoregressive processes; Belts; Data models; Indexes; Kalman filters; Predictive models; Space vehicles; High Energetic Electron Flux; Kalman Filter; NARMAX; Nonlinear Modeling;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Computer, Communications, and Control Technology (I4CT), 2015 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Kuching

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/I4CT.2015.7219606

Filename

7219606