Title :
Measuring and modeling computer virus prevalence
Author :
Kephart, Jeffrey O. ; White, Steve R.
Author_Institution :
IBM T.J. Watson Res. Center, Yorktown Heights, NY, USA
Abstract :
To understand the current extent of the computer virus problem and predict its future course, the authors have conducted a statistical analysis of computer virus incidents in a large, stable sample population of PCs and developed new epidemiological models of computer virus spread. Only a small fraction of all known viruses have appeared in real incidents, partly because many viruses are below the theoretical epidemic threshold. The observed sub-exponential rate of viral spread can be explained by models of localized software exchange. A surprisingly small fraction of machines in well-protected business environments are infected. This may be explained by a model in which, once a machine is found to be infected, neighboring machines are checked for viruses. This kill signal idea could be implemented in networks to greatly reduce the threat of viral spread. A similar principle has been incorporated into a cost-effective anti-virus policy for organizations which works quite well in practice
Keywords :
DP management; computer viruses; statistical analysis; PCs; computer virus prevalence; computer virus spread; cost-effective anti-virus policy; epidemiological models; localized software exchange; statistical analysis; well-protected business environments; Computer viruses; Context modeling; Laboratories; Mathematical model; Personal communication networks; Predictive models; Solids; Statistical analysis; Statistics; Viruses (medical);
Conference_Titel :
Research in Security and Privacy, 1993. Proceedings., 1993 IEEE Computer Society Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Oakland, CA
Print_ISBN :
0-8186-3370-0
DOI :
10.1109/RISP.1993.287647