Study of multi-scenario based technology roadmapping: Bayesian causal maps approach

The increasingly important role of technology roadmap in today´s business success is well established. The main reason for this is that technology roadmap is considered to reflect all the plans (technology and business performance) and as such build on rather than replace existing techniques in use within a company. Despite all the possibilities offered by the technology roadmap, it is subject to some limitations that stem from only consideration of straight-line projection or single scenario; thus, it becomes complex in the face of high volatility, rapid, systematic, and unanticipated changes. In order to overcome such limitations, this paper offers multi- scenario based technology roadmap using the approach of Bayesian causal maps. In addition to Bayesian causal maps, a systematic probability generation method is also used to compute conditional probability distribution that is needed to compute the prior and posterior probability of the variables in the maps.