An operational framework in forecasting radical innovation: The case of the CO2-free automobile

This article deals with a framework of the process of innovation which is designed to help building up forecasting scenarios for breakthrough innovations in mature industries. It is based on previous research on innovation and on an up-to-date literature review of key success factors of innovation. It is applied to the various technological powertrain options faced by the automotive industry due to need of reducing fossil fuel consumption and CO² emissions. It gives an appraisal of the various economic, technological, social and political factors which could influence a particular technology allowing a tentative scenario for the next 30 years.