Price Forecasting in the Spanish Day-Ahead Electricity Market Using Preconditioned Wind Power Information

In this paper, short-term electricity price forecasting using residual demand under predefined wind power generation conditions is performed. Residual demand is defined as the total electricity demand subtracted by hard to predict renewable energy sources. Focus of this paper lies on wind power generation as the main renewable energy source. First, the long-term influence of wind power on the electricity market price is investigated. Second, the short-term dependency between electricity market price and wind power generation is examined by applying the similar day method to the Spanish day-ahead market as well as data association mining. Third, a novel method of how to use wind power information is introduced.