An approach of a simulation model to analyze the future energy balance of Bavaria

The complexity of the electric energy system will continue to increase in the next years. One of the reasons is the trend moving away from centralized electric energy production in favor of a more decentralized one. Simulation models play an important role in analyzing the future development of a complex system such as the energy system. In this paper we describe a simulation model of the electric energy system for the German federal state Bavaria to investigate its annual energy balance during the phase-out of nuclear energy and the growth of renewable energy sources. To analyze an electric energy system with a high amount of fluctuating power plants, we present a simulation approach and describe the main components and their interactions in order to provide a tool for the investigation of different scenarios. Moreover, we consider two scenarios for the future Bavarian electric energy system and analyze the annual balance of energy.