Impacts of large penetration of wind in electricity systems. Probabilistic analysis on Spanish market

Impacts of large penetration of wind are analyzed in depth in this paper. The analysis proposed is strengthened using a simulation model. The probabilistic model is based on a case scenario that currently is present on the Spanish market taking several hypotheses. According to the model, the growth of RES capacity will substantially reduce the residual demand left to conventional thermal generation. The load factor reduction of thermal technologies, together with episodes of zero or negative prices (where implemented), compromises their operation in the mid term and the system adequacy in the long term. The paper also advocates for a burden sharing of costs involved in order to compliance with the ambitious targets set by RES Directive, since even though not all the different sectors have the same possibilities to make use of renewable sources of energy, are part of the gross final consumption.