Forecasting research about cotton planting desire of farmers in America—Combination qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis

The cotton planting desire of farmers in America can largely affect the cotton market supply in American, even the whole world. So knowing the change of cotton planting desire of American farmers can help us to forecast the supply trend of the global cotton market. By analyzing the data of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) of the last thirty years, three regression models were constructed. The optimal regression model was got by comparing the three models. Qualitative analysis was carried out on the basis of the former research. The result of quantitative analysis showed that the cotton planting desire of American farmers was largely affected by the cotton planting desire of last year, and the results of combination qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis were remarkable superior to the simple quantitative analysis.