Nowcasting and forecasting the foF2, MUF(3000)F2 and TEC based on empirical models and real-time data

This paper describes an interactive on-line procedure for nowcasting and forecasting the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer f₀F2, the maximum usable frequency for a 3000 km range, MUF(3000)F2, and the total electron content TEC, based on empirical models and near real-time data initially developed under the EU COST 251 Action (Hanbaba, 1999). It has been recently improved in such a way as to be useful to radio users who need up-to-date information on ionospheric conditions over Europe to meet their operational requirements (Cander, 2003). In particular, the ability to provide and process prompt plasmaspheric and ionospheric data is improving with the aim to better characterise the geographic, temporal, seasonal, and solar cycle dependence of these potentially serious ionospheric effects on radio communication performance during severe space weather conditions. Extensive comparisons between measured and forecast values of f₀F2, MUF(3000)F2 and TEC from January 2000 to August 2002 have been conducted, as well as comparisons between automatic and manually scaled parameters. The merits are stressed of real-time use of data to provide more accurate specification of the ionospheric space weather and forecast its effects in the near future.