Using statistical methods to predict link quality in COTS-based fiber optic networks

Modern military avionics gigabit/second fiber optic links can be made relatively low-cost as the result of COTS-based VCSEL transceivers. However, such systems quite often consist of large numbers of components, due to multiple bulkhead disconnects and, in addition, must operate over an extended environmental range. These factors create a rich statistical mixture when we attempt to analyse performance. By modeling the statistical distributions of the individual component parameters and combining them using appropriate probabilistic methods, a more precise estimate of performance is achieved. This method is currently in use within Boeing on several aerospace applications. Along with the use of a more precise treatment of the statistical nature of the components, a more complete method of determining loss of link components is proposed