A history data based traffic incident impact analyzing and predicting method

Traffic incidents are a main factor that reduces capacity and service quality of roads. Due to the absence of efficient incident impact analyzing and predicting method, the traffic congestion and secondary accident brought by traffic incidents can hardly be avoided. In this paper we propose a history data based traffic incident impact analyzing and predicting method. By extracting regularity and volatility information from history data, we find a solution to analyze both parts that comprise the traffic flow status: the road condition without the incident, and the impact of the incident. Thereby we can predict the traffic condition under incidents by estimating the two components separately and adding them together. Experimental results show that our solution could simulate and predict the impact tendency of traffic incidents with high accuracy.