How kWh/kWp modelling and measurement comparisons depend on uncertainty and variability

Author

Ransome, Steve ; Sutterlueti, Juergen ; Kravets, Roman

Author_Institution

SRCL, London, UK

fYear

2011

fDate

19-24 June 2011

Abstract

Most PV simulation programs (PVSP) use similar algorithm sequences [1] to predict system kWh/kWp and cent/kWh from weather, PV performance and BOS databases with users´ best guesses for dirt, shading etc. PVSPs usually estimate PV performance vs. irradiance and temperature from a 1-diode model of either a manufacturer´s datasheet or from an indoor or outdoor characterisation of one (or a small number) of samples and often won´t consider the variability or uncertainty of module measurements. When modelling kWh/kWp there are a very large number of uncertainties, variabilities and unknowns which dominate the predicted or measured energy yield. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) [2] calculations have been performed on the modelled performance data. Important factors are analysed and quantified for locations and suggestions made as to how to improve modelling and performance claims.

Keywords

costing; measurement uncertainty; photovoltaic power systems; power system economics; power system measurement; power system simulation; PV simulation programs; irradiance; kWh/kWp modelling; levelized cost of electricity; measurement comparisons; uncertainty; variability; Arrays; Inverters; Measurement uncertainty; Meteorology; Predictive models; Temperature measurement; Uncertainty;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC), 2011 37th IEEE

Conference_Location

Seattle, WA

ISSN

0160-8371

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-9966-3

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PVSC.2011.6185925

Filename

6185925