Title :
How kWh/kWp modelling and measurement comparisons depend on uncertainty and variability
Author :
Ransome, Steve ; Sutterlueti, Juergen ; Kravets, Roman
Author_Institution :
SRCL, London, UK
Abstract :
Most PV simulation programs (PVSP) use similar algorithm sequences [1] to predict system kWh/kWp and cent/kWh from weather, PV performance and BOS databases with users´ best guesses for dirt, shading etc. PVSPs usually estimate PV performance vs. irradiance and temperature from a 1-diode model of either a manufacturer´s datasheet or from an indoor or outdoor characterisation of one (or a small number) of samples and often won´t consider the variability or uncertainty of module measurements. When modelling kWh/kWp there are a very large number of uncertainties, variabilities and unknowns which dominate the predicted or measured energy yield. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) [2] calculations have been performed on the modelled performance data. Important factors are analysed and quantified for locations and suggestions made as to how to improve modelling and performance claims.
Keywords :
costing; measurement uncertainty; photovoltaic power systems; power system economics; power system measurement; power system simulation; PV simulation programs; irradiance; kWh/kWp modelling; levelized cost of electricity; measurement comparisons; uncertainty; variability; Arrays; Inverters; Measurement uncertainty; Meteorology; Predictive models; Temperature measurement; Uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC), 2011 37th IEEE
Conference_Location :
Seattle, WA
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-9966-3
DOI :
10.1109/PVSC.2011.6185925
