Damage trajectory analysis based prognostic

To obtain high availability with reduced life cycle total ownership costs, classical maintenance policies are not sufficient. Indeed these polices do not allow us to maintain just when its necessary because they are not available to plan the current system damage state in the future. To predict accurately and precisely the future system damage state, it is necessary to take into account how and where the system is used in order to analyze the damage trajectory. The paper presents a methodology based on the system decomposition in three levels: environment, mission and process, to predict the future damage state by tracking its various damage trajectories and thus to know whether the system is able to accomplish its mission in time by using system current damage state and its future use.