An application to set up a model to forecast electric rate adjusted through cos/spl Phi/ using regressive analysis

A 2-step tariff mechanism is adopted in Chinese electric power market. That means the payment of the customers is calculated through the cosPhi of a net node. So the value of cosPhi is used to adjust the rate of consumer´s tariff. But because of the policy, the value of the adjusted rate can´t be calculated accurately in advance. Some problems always lie in how to choose a proper model to make sure the adjusted value of electric rate when to analyze the economic benefit. The paper firstly points out the disadvantage of traditional method on forecasting the adjusted rate through cosPhi. Then it presents a new method to establish the forecast model based on regressive analysis. The model proposed here was applied in a distribution company and given the reasonable result. The paper describes the applicability of the proposed model and gives some explanation for application