A method for delay estimation using traffic monitoring data

This paper presents an algorithm to estimate delays at roadworks using historical and real time traffic data. Two types of delay are considered in the algorithm, queuing delay and the moving delay, of which queuing delay is the dominant part of the total delay at roadworks. A queuing delay analysis method is introduced. The algorithm uses a queuing analysis diagram, which takes demand and capacity as input, to estimate the expected queuing delay. Then an initial validation is carried out using operational traffic data from different types of sites. Demands and capacities estimated using historical profile data for different days of the week are used in the validation to test the sensitivity of delay estimation with respect to errors in demand and capacity estimation.