A simplified approach to conflict probability estimation

Describes a relatively straightforward method of estimating the probability of loss of separation between two aircraft at some future time, that is, the probability that they will enter into conflict. Initially the method is developed for encounters in which the planned or predicted speeds of both aircraft are constant during the prediction interval and in which their tracks are straight in regions of possible conflict. Various graphs of conflict probability are produced which are comparable with those already reported. These graphs indicate the levels of performance that may be attainable with medium-term conflict detectors. The method can also be applied in the cases of planned changes in speed prior to entering regions of possible conflict, and also to position-based changes in heading within regions of possible conflict, making it more suitable for use in conflict detectors