Application of ANOVA methodology to the uncertainties management in power system planning in an open market environment

With the electricity market opening, uncertainty is increasing concerning the power system structure and development. These new uncertainties must be taken into account in the power system planning. The constraint scenarios determination may help the ISO (independent system operator) to determine which line needs reinforcement. The ANOVA method (analysis of variance) is often used in the agronomic or chemistry domain to select the most efficient combination of factors. This method is used here to select the factors that are significantly influent on the level of congestion of various lines. ANOVA allows the ISO to sort uncertain factors by level of influence on a studied congestion. The ISO is also able to determine which interactions between factors are related to the congestion level. The method is applied to the 24 bus test case IEEE power system