A probabilistic model for network survivability in large scale failure scenarios

In this paper, we study the impact of time-varying large-scale failure scenarios on communication network infrastructure. Natural disasters such as earthquakes or nuclear explosions can cause such failures in the network. We model the impact of failure using deterministic and probabilistic failure models, and use simulations to evaluate the performance of a path restoration scheme in such scenarios. Different probabilistic scenarios are computed and discussed and compared to the deterministic method. Required restoration time in different probabilistic failure models is simulated and total number of restorable demands is calculated. The proposed approach can be used as a framework to evaluate required capacity and restoration time to refine restoration schemes for achieving better survivability levels.