Estimating Error Propagation Probabilities with Bounded Variances

Fast and accurate estimation of soft error rate (SER) is essential in obtaining the reliability parameters of a digital system and cost-effective reliability improvements. In this paper we present an approach to obtain uncertainty bounds on the error propagation probability (EPP) values used in SER estimation based on an analytical approach. We demonstrate how we can compute EPP values and their uncertainty bounds (variances) by examining the logic gates in a topological order. Comparison of this method with the Monte-Carlo (MC) fault simulation approach confirms the accuracy of the presented technique for both the computed EPP values and uncertainty bounds. Also, this technique is 3-5 orders of magnitude faster than fault simulation.