Solar Particle Events and Self-Organized Criticality: Are Deterministic Predictions of Events Possible?

Author

Xapsos, M.A. ; Stauffer, C. ; Barth, J.L. ; Burke, E.A.

Author_Institution

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt

fYear

2005

fDate

19-23 Sept. 2005

Abstract

Evidence is presented that solar particle events are a self-organized critical phenomenon. Using daily and monthly fluences of solar protons measured by the IMP-8 and GOES satellite instrumentation over a 28-year period, long-term correlation of events, fractal characteristics and power function behavior for the density functions of fluence magnitudes and waiting times are demonstrated. The implications are that it is not possible to predict the time of occurrence and magnitude of solar particle events within narrow limits.

Keywords

aerospace instrumentation; artificial satellites; cosmic ray interactions; cosmic ray protons; proton effects; self-organised criticality; solar cosmic ray particles; GOES satellite instrumentation; IMP-8; density functions; deterministic predictions; fluence magnitudes; self-organized critical phenomenon; solar particle events; solar protons; Density functional theory; Fractals; Instruments; Interactive systems; NASA; Observatories; Protons; Satellites; Space technology; Sun; fractal; rescaled range; self-organized criticality; solar particle event;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Radiation and Its Effects on Components and Systems, 2005. RADECS 2005. 8th European Conference on

Conference_Location

Cap d´Agde

ISSN

0379-6566

Print_ISBN

978-0-7803-9502-2

Electronic_ISBN

0379-6566

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/RADECS.2005.4365579

Filename

4365579