Title :
Risk Evaluation of Project Option Based on Probabilistic Influence Diagram
Author :
Wang Hua ; Zhang Haixia
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Manage., Shenyang Univ. of Technol., Shenyang, China
Abstract :
The option evaluation method of investment project influenced by numerous risk factors, in this paper, these risk factors are subdivided into fourteen risk indexes, then use the probabilistic influence diagram method, through model simplifying and probability reasoning, and eventually to identify the key factors that affect the evaluation of project option, it is of important significance in theory and practice to the perfection and promotion of investment projects´ option evaluation method.
Keywords :
inference mechanisms; investment; probability; project management; risk analysis; investment project; option evaluation method; probabilistic influence diagram method; probability reasoning; project option; risk evaluation; risk factors; risk indexes; Analytical models; Decision making; Educational institutions; Fluctuations; Indexes; Investments; Probabilistic logic; influence diagram; probability; project option; risk;
Conference_Titel :
Computer Science and Electronics Engineering (ICCSEE), 2012 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hangzhou
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-0689-8
DOI :
10.1109/ICCSEE.2012.368
