A probabilistic approach to solve economic dispatch problem in systems with intermittent power sources

As a crucial factor in global energy consumption, environmental problems related to the greenhouse gas emissions and high oil prices have motivated the growth and incorporation of alternative sources of energy into power systems. However, one of the most important facets of such problems is their intermittent nature, which means that the operation and management of a power system is a difficult task. In this paper, a probabilistic approach to solving the economic dispatch (ED) problem under conditions of uncertainty is presented. The proposed methodology allows for obtaining the probability distribution function (PDF) of all generation units, the energy not supplied (ENS) and the total generation cost. A case study based on an insular power system is analyzed, with reference to the important relationship that exists between the PDF of net load demand and the PDF of ENS, power production and total generation cost.