DocumentCode :
1909001
Title :
Short-Term Load Prediction Based on Chaos Time Series Theory
Author :
Wang, Hongjie ; Chi, Dezhong
Author_Institution :
Railway Tech. Coll., Lanzhou Jiaotong Univ., Lanzhou, China
Volume :
2
fYear :
2009
fDate :
10-11 Oct. 2009
Firstpage :
189
Lastpage :
192
Abstract :
In this paper, two chaotic predicted methods are applied to forecast the grid´s load data. The data are collected from the grid of New South Wales, Australia. It records the grid´s load of four weekends in May. First, the phase space is reconstructed using the delay embedding theorem suggested by TAKENS. Second, for reducing the negative influence of the Largest Lyapunov Exponent Method, a method based on the Adding-weighted Largest Lyapunov Exponent Method is proposed. Then the Adding-weighted One-rank Local-region Forecasting Method as a traditional chaotic forecasting arithmetic is used to forecast the load. Finally, we compared the two methods. Results presented show that the proposed Adding-weighted Largest Lyapunov Exponent Method appears to perform better than the traditional chaotic forecasting arithmetic.
Keywords :
Lyapunov methods; chaos; load forecasting; time series; TAKENS; adding-weighted largest Lyapunov exponent method; adding-weighted one-rank local-region forecasting method; chaos time series theory; chaotic forecasting arithmetic; delay embedding theorem; phase space; short-term load prediction; Arithmetic; Australia; Chaos; Delay effects; Delay estimation; Grid computing; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Power system modeling; Predictive models; Adding-weighted Largest Lyapunov Exponent Method; Adding-weighted One-rank Local-region Forecasting Method; Chaotic forecasting; reconstruction of the phase space;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation, 2009. ICICTA '09. Second International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Changsha, Hunan
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3804-4
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/ICICTA.2009.283
Filename :
5288174
Link To Document :
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