Modeling Expert Judgment for Reliability Prediction - Comparison of Methods

This paper presents an introduction into methods for representing and modeling expert judgment for reliability prediction in early stages of product development process. It provides a survey of required inputs and resulting outputs of the single approaches. The problem of handling uncertainties in early design stages will be exemplified by means of the evaluation of reliability for the software portion in mechatronic systems. In this context we show the influence of uncertainty and present an approach which enables the comparison of several concepts in early development stages based on expert judgment.