Ascertaining the Financial Loss from Non-dependable Events in Business Interactions by Using the Monte Carlo Method

Risk assessment in business interactions is carried out to determine beforehand the occurrence of undesirable events and their associated consequences. In the literature, approaches have been proposed by which an interaction initiating agent can ascertain the occurrence of undesirable event/s and determine their consequences in an interaction. But those approaches just consider those events that are related to the performance of the other agent, with whom the interaction initiating agent is forming an interaction. It is possible that there may also be such events that are not dependent on the other agent´s performance, but will directly or indirectly have an impact on the successful completion of the business interaction. In this paper, we will highlight the importance of considering such event/s during the process of risk assessment, and propose a methodology by which the interaction initiating agent can determine and quantify their effect on the successful completion of its business interaction.