Exploring major events and the accumulated user forecasting model to support building Web-based learning communities - preliminary analysis from the school for all

Many researchers used computer technology over the last decade to build a virtual learning community in Web-based learning environment. However, building and managing a sustainable learning community remains challenging. One of the goals of this study is to try to identify some major events that affect learning community growth, and another goal is employ these events to develop a regression model for forecasting accumulated effective users in learning communities in the future. This study uses a Web-based learning system, as a preliminary analysis environment. Four major events that influence learning communities were identified, and these events were used to establish a regression model for calculating accumulated effective users. Future works will attempt to prove that the forecast regression model affects community building.