Simulation research on risk measure in hospital service supply chain based on system dynamics

A supply chain concept model on hospital emergency treatment is built up on the basis of general service supply chain model, in which patients face the risk of illness´ worsing on the condition of no timely treatment. We set risk rate as the rate of emergency process incompletion and simulation research on this supply chain is carried out by virtue of system dynamics model. Results indicate that there is a higher risk rate when the patient quantity is random and the hospital staff is stable, while there is obvious drop in risk rate when medical affairs are adjusted in time on actual demand. This risk simulation results can be popularized to general emergency service supply chain that the whole system´s emergency ability can be promoted when the dispatching in all levels in supply chain are in process in time.