A study on the near future of wind power development in Iran: A system dynamics approach

In order to explain current situation as well as future trends of wind power market in Iran, a system dynamics model is developed. Various supportive options such as subsidy for guaranteed wind power purchasing, tax of pollutant spread, and Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) are included to investigate effects of the policies on development of wind power generation in Iran. A most desirable supportive policy is executed which shows that requests of private sector to construct power plant have been increased approximately to 9-fold as well as the number of installed power plants. In addition, profit making of wind farms will be increased to more than 10-fold, although outcomes are far from the planned national targets in the renewable sector. Results clearly are representative of the fact that either some supernormal supportive policy must be executed in Iran to reach the target of 5 GW renewable power generation, as the fifth development plan states, or the target should be revised to more consistent one, regarding the current situation in the country.