Adaptive agents in NAS-wide simulations: A case-study of CTOP and SWIM

To support the development and evaluation of NextGen/SESAR concepts-of-operations and technologies, NAS-wide simulations and analysis methodologies are required to evaluate the feasibility and estimate the NAS-wide benefits. Of particular importance is the evaluation of unintended consequences that have historically been a roadblock to innovation in the NAS. This paper describes an analysis of adaptive airline behavior for flightplan route selection in the presence of Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) and System Wide Information Management (SWIM). The results of analysis of simulation of 60,000 flight per day for 80 days shows that: (i) flightplan route selection reaches a system-wide equilibrium, (ii) the equilibrium state yields system-wide performance benefits, (iii) the equilibrium is achieved in 18 days, (iv) inaccurate and delayed information have no impact on system-wide performance but require additional days to achieve equilibrium, and (v) global (i.e. all airline) information does not improve individual airline route selection. The implications of these results on NextGen planning are discussed.