Title :
Oil barrel price forecasting: A case study of Saudi Arabia
Author :
Mutwali, Bandar Hamdi A. ; El-Hawary, M.E.
Author_Institution :
Electr. & Comput. Eng. Dept., Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS, Canada
Abstract :
In this study, various models are used to forecast oil barrel price (OBP) in Saudi Arabia using artificial neural networks (ANNs). The proposed models are based on a multilayer feedforward neural network with backpropagation (MFFNNBP). A number of features were used as inputs to the neural network, such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and unemployment rate. The results show that, with meticulous design and appropriate training inputs, MFFNNBP models can predict OBP with a low margin of error.
Keywords :
backpropagation; economic forecasting; feedforward neural nets; inflation (monetary); petroleum industry; pricing; ANN; GDP; MFFNNBP models; OBP forecasting; Saudi Arabia; artificial neural networks; backpropagation; gross domestic product; inflation rate; multilayer feedforward neural network; oil barrel price forecasting; unemployment rate; Artificial neural networks; Biological system modeling; Economic indicators; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Unemployment;
Conference_Titel :
Electrical Power & Energy Conference (EPEC), 2013 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Halifax, NS
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4799-0105-0
DOI :
10.1109/EPEC.2013.6802946