Development of a quantitative performance model of track sections: A decision support tool for rail infrastructure maintenance policymakers

Rail Infrastructure Managers (RIMs) have a growing challenge fulfilling their responsibility to maintain rail infrastructure, because of increasing pressure from governments and train operating companies. The goal of this paper is to describe the role of RIMs and to develop a quantitative model to provide transparency about costs and performance. We carried out a case study with the aim of developing a quantitative performance model of one track section. First, we chose four critical technical systems of the track section. Second, we developed a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) of the critical technical systems. Finally, we ran Monte Carlo simulations using alternative maintenance concepts as input in the model and the performance of the track section as output of the model. The simulations show that alternative maintenance concepts have a major impact on the performance of a track section. The results show that it is possible for a RIM to establish the desired transparency about costs and performance, which is useful in managing expectancies of their stakeholders.