Title :
Fuzzy Probability Method-Based Risk Assessment of Engineering Project
Author :
Liu, Zhangjun ; Xiong, Min ; Ding, Hongrui
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Civil & Hydroelectric Eng., China Three Gorges Univ., Yichang, China
Abstract :
From the angle of the project risk, the fuzzy probability theory is applied to appraise the risk. Firstly, the influential factors of the risk assessment for highway engineering project are analyzed according to the risk from the whole cycle of project. The risk of highway engineering project is divided into three parts, such as environmental risk, process risk and decision-target risk, and an assessment index system of highway project risk is constructed. Secondly, based on the fuzzy probability theory, a new model of risk assessment for highway engineering project is developed. In order to assess index weighted value scientifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced into the fuzzy weighted values to avoid the uncertainties while determining the index weights. Finally, the validity and rationality of the risk evaluation for highway engineering project is verified through the risk instance of a project.
Keywords :
decision making; fuzzy set theory; probability; project management; risk management; analytic hierarchy process; assessment index system; decision-target risk; environmental risk; fuzzy probability method; fuzzy weighted values; highway engineering project; process risk; risk assessment; Construction industry; Educational institutions; Electronic mail; Indexes; Project management; Risk management; Road transportation;
Conference_Titel :
Internet Technology and Applications, 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Wuhan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5142-5
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5143-2
DOI :
10.1109/ITAPP.2010.5566233