Title :
Malaysian tourism interest forecasting using Nonlinear Auto-Regressive (NAR) model
Author :
Yassin, I.M. ; Zabidi, Azlee ; Salleh, M.K.M. ; Khalid, Noor Elaiza Abd
Author_Institution :
Fac. of Electr. Eng., Univ. Teknol. Mara, Shah Alam, Malaysia
Abstract :
Tourism is an important industry for many nations including Malaysia. A tourism forecasting model is necessary in order to optimize resource allocation to maximize facilities and services to tourists. This paper proposes a Nonlinear AutoRegressive (NAR) model to forecast Malaysian tourism influx based on the volume of internet searches of the keyword `tourism Malaysia´. The volume of internet searches has been proven to correspond strongly with tourism in a particular area. Validation and fitting tests indicate valid model with a modest data fit ability.
Keywords :
Internet; autoregressive processes; forecasting theory; information retrieval; travel industry; Internet search volume; Malaysian tourism influx forecasting; Malaysian tourism interest forecasting; NAR model; facilities maximization; nonlinear autoregressive model; resource allocation optimization; service maximization; tourism Malaysia keyword; tourists; Forecasting; Google; Internet; Market research; Predictive models; Testing; Training; Google Trends; Nonlinear Auto-Regressive (NAR) model; Tourism; forecasting; system identification;
Conference_Titel :
System Engineering and Technology (ICSET), 2013 IEEE 3rd International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Shah Alam
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4799-1028-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICSEngT.2013.6650138
