A preliminary research methodology on chemical supply chain risk management using system dynamics approach

With ever growing globalization and complexity in chemical supply chain (CSC), the impacts of risk characteristics such as probability and severity on supply chain performance become crucial. In this paper, an integrated chemical supply chain risk management (CSCRM) framework is proposed that combines scientific review and system dynamics (SD) modelling method to investigate the various CSC risks. Whereby, a hazard identification, risk assessment, and risk mitigation are carried out as sequential steps to manage the actual and potential risks in CSC. The proposed approach uses a SD model to investigate the causal interdependencies between the CSC performance and risk factors. Running the built SD model in various risk scenarios, the effects of risks are addressed taken into consideration the causal relationships and feedback effects. Furthermore, the formalization of such SD model can be modified both in design and operation phases provides a faithful and transparent decision support tool to investigate the outcomes of the substantial risks mitigation methods, so as to make the optimal decisions in CSCRM.