Short-term operational reliability evaluation for power systems under extreme weather conditions

Multi-concurrent failures in electric grids are severe events for modern power systems, which might result in power failures, or even rolling blackout in a large area. Usually, the possibility of such a failure in a stable system is very low, but it increases dramatically when the system suffers extreme weather. Thus the system operator needs to evaluate the risk of power systems under extreme weather conditions. This paper develops an approach to evaluate the risk of multi-concurrent failures in complicated power systems by simulating transmission line outages. A quantitative reliability index is proposed based on the probability and consequence of failures. The real large-scale power system of Guangdong Province is used for the simulation, and the result shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.