Title :
A stochastic model for simulation and forecasting of emergencies in the area of Milano
Author :
Micheletti, Alessandra ; Morale, Daniela ; Rapati, Daniele ; Nolli, Paola
Author_Institution :
Dipt. di Mat., Univ. degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
Abstract :
In this paper a method for estimating and forecasting the demand of ambulance service in the area of Milano is presented. We assume that time and location of an emergency service request are outcomes of a space-time marked point process. Thus we estimate the intensity of the process on the basis of the records of specific emergency call history over 3 years (2005-2007). The mean number of emergencies occurring daily is also related, via a linear regression model, to some exogenous variables, which can be measured and used for the forecasting procedure. Simulation results based on such estimates and real data observed during 2008 are presented.
Keywords :
emergency services; forecasting theory; hospitals; regression analysis; stochastic processes; Milano; ambulance service; emergency forecasting; emergency service; linear regression model; space time marked point process; stochastic model; Buildings; Computer errors; Hospitals; Instruments; Predictive models; Process planning; Stochastic processes; Surgery; Surges; System testing;
Conference_Titel :
Health Care Management (WHCM), 2010 IEEE Workshop on
Conference_Location :
Venice
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4997-2
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4998-9
DOI :
10.1109/WHCM.2010.5441259
