Recognizing and forecasting the hydrologic drought in the upper of Weihe basin

Author

Wang, Jingcai ; Xia, Ziqiang ; Guo, Lidan ; Liang, Dongye

Author_Institution

Coll. of Hydrol. & Water Resource, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China

fYear

2011

fDate

16-18 Sept. 2011

Firstpage

1677

Lastpage

1680

Abstract

Yearly natural streamflow data of five hydrologic stations over the upper of Weihe basin for 1945-2000 were utilized to analyze the drought characteristics by using Run-theory and Grey system. Based on the theory of run and intercept method, the hydrologic drought duration, drought severity and the value of conditional probability were calculated to evaluate the regional hydrological drought characteristics. The hydro-drought forecasting model was established by using the Grey system theory in order to provide the time span of forecast. The model had the traits of high accuracy and convenience, so it could be used in hydrogical drought analysis.

Keywords

disasters; hydrological techniques; rain; rivers; AD 1945 to 2000; China; Grey system theory; Upper Weihe basin; drought severity; hydrodrought forecasting model; hydrologic drought duration; hydrologic station; run theory; run-intercept method; streamflow; Accuracy; Analytical models; Educational institutions; Forecasting; Geoscience; Predictive models; Water resources; GM (1, 1); Mana-Kendall test; drought prediction; hydrologic drought; run theory; upper Weihe basin;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Electrical and Control Engineering (ICECE), 2011 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Yichang

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-8162-0

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICECENG.2011.6058279

Filename

6058279