Understanding of estimation accuracy in software development projects

Over the past decades large investments in software engineering research and development have been made by academia and the software industry. These efforts have produced considerably insight in the complex domain of software development, and have paid off in the shape of the improved tools, languages, methodologies and techniques. However, a recent review of estimation survey documents that less progress has been made in the area of estimation performance. This is a major concern for the software industry, as lack of estimation performance often causes budget overruns, delays, lost contracts or poor quality software. Because of these rather dramatic consequences, there is a high demand for more research on the topic of effort estimation in software development projects. That demand motivated this PhD. The thesis is written at the Estimation Group at Simula Research Laboratory in Oslo, Norway. The work is supervised by professor Magne Jorgensen, and is part of the SPIKE (Software Process Improvement based on Knowledge and Experience) project which is funded by the Norwegian Research Council