Hourly load modelling of non-residential building stock

Smart grid and demand side management (DSM) are expected to play a key role in facing the challenges of a nearly 100 % renewable energy system with high share of intermittent power production. Compensating for the variability in power production creates a need for flexible demand. However with the introduction of net zero energy buildings (ZEB), studies have shown that buildings´ net demand may be more volatile than the existing building stock as they act as prosumers, both consuming and producing energy. In the ongoing work we investigate the impact of a large roll out of ZEBs in Norway, compared to today´s building stock. How will the buildings´ net demand profile evolve, and how will this affect the energy system? In short one may say that the net demand profile of ZEBs consists of two components, hourly profiles of heat and electricity demand separately, and hourly profiles of onsite energy production (such as PVs). In this paper we examine the load profiles, and leave the production profiles, and subsequently the net load profiles, for later studies. A regression model for heat demand profiles of non-residential buildings is developed and tested on Norwegian school buildings. The findings confirm that heat consumption in passive houses is drastically lower (almost halved) compared to normal school buildings both in terms of yearly energy demand and in terms of peak loads.