A Large-Scale Open Space Emergency Evacuation Model

Evaluation and optimization of the evacuation plan is the critical problem of the assessment of emergency plan. How to model the crowd evacuation process providing dynamic spatial-temporal distribution is the tropical area in research, which can minimize the human exposure risk (death or casualties). The basic features of the stochastic Markov model to estimate the spatial distribution of the evacuees during evacuation cover the estimation of affected areas, space discretization, nodes and links creation, definition of discrete actions, etc. The influencing factors in this model consider the road system; vehicles used in evacuation; traffic jam; weather conditions. Sensitivity analysis shows that the spatial and temporal distribution of the evacuees can be easily described using this model that provide useful information for decision-making, such as the need to increase transportation network capacity, or the need build shelters for asylum, their numbers and how to select the location.