The Probabilistic Collocation Method for dealing with uncertainties in power system small disturbance studies

This paper applies the Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) to modeling operational uncertainties in small disturbance power system studies. The PCM is a method of estimating the statistical distribution of a system output from the uncertain parameter values using significantly fewer full system simulations than traditional sampling techniques. The application of PCM is illustrated on a small, two area transmission system. Probabilistic locations for all system electromechanical modes in the presence of system uncertainties have been estimated accurately. Furthermore, the method provides vast time savings and could facilitate a move towards online probabilistic power system studies.