On the maximum design earthquake in disaster prevention planning

After the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, researchers have generally agreed that a disaster prevention plan should take into account a strong seismic motion which exceeds the maximum past level and destroys the city or region. However, many of the issues discussed remain on the methodology of how to determine the reasonable level. This study proposes a methodology to determine the level from a socio-economic viewpoint by focusing the level of remaining functions for reconstruction. Through numerical examinations on the model performance under several kinds of utility functions and loss functions, the usefulness of the proposed model is confirmed. The proposed model gives a framework for further detailed discussion, including an introduction of a policy mix of seismic improvement and inter-regional seismic insurance