Probabilistic failure analysis of interconnected dynamical systems based on the concept of robust reliability

In this paper, we propose the method for assessing failure probabilities of dynamical systems which are interconnected in parallel / series configuration. Firstly, failure probabilities of the subsystems are obtained according to the definition of the failures of the subsystems. Failure probabilities of each subsystem are defined by the convex safe regions and derived from the covariance matrices of the subsystems. Then, failure probabilities of the overall systems are calculated from failure probabilities of the subsystems by applying the methodology employed for probabilistic safety assessment. An illustrative example shows the validity and details of the proposed method.